World Bank details tiny TPP benefit
A comprehensive economic analysis has shown Australia stands to gain almost nothing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
The massive trade deal sealed with 11 other nations including United States, Japan, and Singapore, will boost Australia's economy by just 0.7 per cent by the year 2030, according to the report by staff from the World Bank.
It means an annual economic boost of less than one half of one 10th of 1 per cent.
But the meagre improvement set for Australia will not be the same for other nations. The World Bank estimates Vietnam's economy will be 10 per cent bigger by 2030, Malaysia's 8 per cent bigger, New Zealand's 3 per cent bigger, and Singapore's 3 per cent bigger under the TPP.
The study says highly developed nations like Australia can either rely on things other than trade for economic growth or already operate with few trade restrictions.
The Australian government has not put out an economic analysis of its effects and appear keen not to, even turning down an offer for a review by the Productivity Commission.
Still, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull maintains that the deal is a “gigantic foundation stone”, that will deliver “more jobs, absolutely”.
While the TPP agreement should open up trade between members, it makes trade more difficult with non-members due to the “cumulative rules of origin” provisions.
The new rules mean TPP members lose privileges for dealing with countries outside the TPP.
The Productivity Commission has criticised these provisions in the past, arguing that they turn deal designed for ‘free trade’ into preferential agreements among a closed group.
The Partnership also imposes tough new intellectual property provisions on signatories, and sets up investor-state dispute settlement procedures that open government up to legal action from private companies.
The negotiating parties had been planning to sign the agreement in New Zealand on February 4, but New Zealand is yet to issue invitations, insiders say.
The deal must be ratified by at least 6 of the 12 signatories before it comes into effect.
In Australia, the Federal Government must table the agreement in Parliament for 20 joint sitting days and go over a report from the joint standing committee on treaties before the TPP is ratified.